Cities and Climate Change in Coastal Western Indian Ocean – A Grand Challenge (CICLICO)
Funder: Western Indian Ocean Marine Science Association (WIOMSA), Cities and Coast Programme
Coastal cities, as a form of local government, represent growth and development priorities in the WIO and lie at the epicentre of the opportunities and challenges presented. These will be explored as a case study in the medium-sized coastal city of Gqeberha in the Nelson Mandela Bay municipality on the shores of Algoa Bay, South Africa. The aim of CICLICO is to explore and plan, with decision-makers and society in the city of Gqeberha, how diverse and often uncoordinated objectives of coastal and marine planning can be implemented to enable better adaptation to climate change in vulnerable coastal cities of the WIO through the use of climate services for city planning tools.
The specific research objectives of the project are to 1) undertake participatory mapping of the coastal and marine planning systems of the Nelson Mandela Bay municipality in Algoa Bay; 2) build a system dynamics model consisting of the key causalities of managing coastal and marine space in a changing climate; and, 3) co-create climate services using system dynamic models as proof of concept. This will result in an understanding of the use of area-based management approaches, governance perspectives, environmental assets and stakeholder conflicts in light of climate change.
Systems dynamics modelling will support the understanding of a complex system challenged by wicked problems. Understanding the drivers and mechanisms of possible change on area-based management that is dynamic will allow for discussion and validation of the models and the development of climate services. Finally, climate services are intended to provide custom-designed and user-driven climate change data and information for use in decision-making and to explore the type and nature of climate services to support coastal and marine planning tools of cities in the WIO. Algoa Bay will be framed in a socio-ecological framework. This is motivated by the complex socio-political, economic and environmental systems and complicated managements strategies in which the area is embedded.
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